Risk managers seemingly drown in data while taking proactive steps to protect
their organization and its people. The same is true in managing the risk of
coronavirus that plagues us all today.
As we all know, with good data, risk management works! Yet, with all the
data we see daily on COVID-19, why do we still have negative outcomes and
adverse trending in our nation's current pandemic?
When I view media reports of COVID-19 data, I understand why their primary
focus is on the high aggregate numbers of cases. They create attention-getting
headlines. Such focus shows us the "big picture" and critical
trending needed to achieve the goal of "flattening of the curve"—but
not metrics that really matter.
Unfortunately, emphasis on cases also instills unwarranted fear, anxiety,
and even hysteria in many people rather than a good dose of reality for sound
risk management decision-making and plan-setting.
Risk Identification and Measurement
The metrics on which we principally need to focus on are those who are
hospitalized and those whose demise resulted from this deadly virus. We need
this higher-level focus not only from the perspective of states, counties, and
local communities but also within each of our respective organizations in both
private and public sectors.
This is important because of the seemingly impossible ability of any
governmental entity at any level to exercise effective control of this risk in
their vast jurisdictions. However, it is very feasible for them to do so for
their own employees—but never all residents in their jurisdiction. This is no
different than others can do within their business, church, school, etc.
If effectively controlled at this microlevel, continuously improved results
should be achieved at the macrolevel.
Each private organization should chart their employee COVID-19 data daily
(or as changes occur) and present such data in a dashboard format for all to
view. The dashboard should include both raw numbers as well as graphic
displays—as we frequently see in the media and as has been practiced by risk
managers for decades.
Age differentiation is proving to be critical. The Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention (CDC) reports that the total US deaths caused by
COVID-19 are very high among those aged 65 or older—80.3 percent. Most in this
age group will have retired, yet there can be multiple exceptions—especially
for churches and their worshippers plus those who embark on a second
career.
At the other end of this spectrum are those aged 0–14. The CDC reports the
number of COVID-19 deaths in this age bracket so far to be merely 31 for all US
residents! This translates to 0.0002 percent.
The CDC also reports that deaths in this same age bracket from annual
seasonal flu have consistently been 0.1 percent over recent years—500 times
that of coronavirus—yet we see no school closures because of seasonal flu!
Risk Reduction and Control
After a system is in place to measure coronavirus occurrences in an
organization, risk avoidance and risk mitigation are next in the process, of
course. Major importance must be placed on the use of face masks, social
distancing, handwashing, disinfecting surfaces, personal protection equipment,
voluntary stay at home, blood plasma donations, and other risk reduction
measures.
Risk reduction in both hospitalizations and deaths should result from
proactive early intervention devoted to the care of the highly
vulnerable among us who are aged 65 or older plus those of any age with
preexisting conditions.
Risk Finance and Risk Transfer
Risk finance follows, of course—usually in the form of health insurance of
all types and descriptions—including self-insurance plans, which is another
good reason for tracking cases within an organization's employees and
family members. Workers compensation and general liability insurance also can
be a factor.
Many states require a presumption that an employee's infection is within
the course and scope of their employment—and the sole remedy from the employer.
Federal statutes are in process to hold employers harmless for alleged
negligence as the proximate cause of infection of customers and others. Until
passage, high costs may be incurred to defend frivolous lawsuits that may
emerge.
Federal and state decrees to mitigate this risk—at all levels—at the extreme
appear to be various versions of the mandatory shutdown of business operations,
school classrooms and their athletic programs, church services, etc. Less
drastic decrees include required "work at home" requirements,
distance learning, livestream viewing of church services, outdoor dining with
separation of tables, etc.
The offsetting negative consequences of such decrees are already in
evidence: major economic downturns, diminished learning in education, and
emotional consequences to different individuals of different severity, to name
but a few.
Risk Management Solutions by Each of Us
However, this is where risk managers, insurance brokers, owners, and leaders
of public and private organizations of all kinds can "rise to the
occasion"—if permitted to do so by political leaders. As mentioned,
governmental bodies and political leaders have proven their ability to measure
the virus risk and its key metrics; however, their inability to control
behavior is evident except through fines, penalties, imprisonment, and
political persuasion.
On the other hand, decision-makers in public and private organizations are
already effectively involved in their leadership roles, including control of
employee behavior within safety, security, and productivity systems and
processes—what we generally refer to as "risk management." Adding
mitigation of the COVID-19 risk should work very effectively.
Bottom Line
We all should study the trends in cases yet focus on major metrics that
matter and then chart our own organization's unique results through
effective risk reduction and risk avoidance—all for the purpose of
community-wide and state-wide victory over the coronavirus.
Don't delay. Start today!
Note:
A complimentary template for a coronavirus
dashboard—personalized for your organization and/or one or more of its
departments/divisions—is available on request by email to .