Climate change is an existential risk to human life. But, before we get to life
as we know it potentially disappearing, this commentary will discuss climate
change as a significant risk to insurers and reinsurers. Swiss Re first
identified the risk in 1979, and today it is one of the most significant
concerns for businesses.
Here are some statistics. In a 2014 study by Munich Re, extreme weather
events—such as prolonged droughts, hurricanes, floods, and severe storms—led to
$600 billion (US dollars) in insured losses since 1980. This is a 400 percent
increase since 1980. Fast-forward to today, where there were $210 billion
losses in 2020 and $280 billion losses in 2021 alone. And what happens to the
insured losses within those numbers? They get reinsured.
What Is Climate Change?
NASA reports that scientists have found that the climate on earth is
significantly changing primarily because of human behavior. Some of the major
changes found through observation are global temperature rise, warming oceans,
shrinking ice sheets, glacial retreat, decreased snow cover, sea-level rise,
declining Arctic Sea ice, extreme events, and ocean acidification. None of
these are good things for property or living things.
These are the present-day effects that are changing the risk environment all
around us. And that's the good news. The bad news is that many scientists
think that these changes are irreversible in our lifetimes. NASA reports that
such change will continue through this century and beyond, causing temperatures
to continue to rise, frost-free seasons and growing seasons to lengthen,
precipitation patterns to change, more droughts and heat waves, hurricanes to
become stronger and more intense, the sea level to rise 1–8 feet by 2100, and
the Arctic likely to become ice free.
Climate Change Around the United States
Here are some findings on how climate change is affecting the various
regions in the United States from the Third and Fourth National Climate
Assessment Reports, released by the US
Global Change Research Program. For the Northeast heat waves, heavy
downpours and sea-level rise pose growing challenges to many aspects of life in
the Northeast. Infrastructure, agriculture, fisheries, and ecosystems will be
increasingly compromised, and many states and cities are beginning to
incorporate climate change into their planning.
In the Northwest, changes in the timing of streamflow reduce water supplies
for competing demands. Sea-level rise, erosion, inundation, risks to
infrastructure, and increasing ocean acidity pose major threats, as well as
increasing wildfire, insect outbreaks, and tree diseases are causing widespread
tree die-off.
In the Southeast, sea-level rise poses widespread and continuing threats to
the region's economy and environment. Extreme heat will affect health,
energy, agriculture, and more. Decreased water availability will have economic
and environmental impacts.
In the Midwest, extreme heat, heavy downpours, and flooding will affect
infrastructure, health, agriculture, forestry, transportation, air and water
quality, and more. Climate change will also exacerbate a range of risks to the
Great Lakes.
Finally, in the Southwest, increased heat, drought, and insect outbreaks,
all linked to climate change, have increased wildfires. Declining water
supplies, reduced agricultural yields, health impacts in cities due to heat,
and flooding and erosion in coastal areas are additional concerns.
Risk Management and Insurance Response to Climate Change
Think about all of these issues as risk managers. How will they be
addressed? How will they be mitigated? What role does insurance and reinsurance
play in addressing these risks?
And, of course, we have those who say there is no such thing as climate
change. Because of those who refuse to confront the reality of climate change,
governmental action is not as aggressive and responsive as the scientists would
like. There has been a failure to allocate resources to develop resiliency in
affected areas and a failure to develop building codes to mitigate property
damage.
Population increases in areas subject to drought, flooding, sea rise, and
hurricanes, along with urban density and economic growth in general, have
caused insured values to increase due to the accumulation of people and
property in zones most affected by climate change. So, when the wind blows and
the water flows, the insured damages are much greater in many areas than they
would have been a few decades ago.
What Insurance Lines Are Affected?
Property. The obvious line of business affected by climate
change is property. The bulk of the insured losses arising from climate change
in the last few decades come from property-related losses. These arise from
primary perils, which are typically defined as natural catastrophes with low
frequency and high severity, like hurricanes/tropical cyclones, earthquakes,
and winter storms.
More recently, climate change has caused more insured losses arising from
secondary perils, which typically have been defined as natural catastrophes
with higher frequency and lower severity, such as strong
thunderstorms/hailstorms, floods, droughts, wildfires, landslides, snow, and
freezes. These secondary perils have increased severity over the past few
decades, causing a greater percentage of insured losses than in the past.
Historical hurricane activity is no longer representative of future
hurricane activity because of climate change. There is now stronger
storm-surge-driven coastal flooding, increased rainfall, increased intensity,
and increased occurrence of rapid intensification, which scientists attribute
to climate change. Other marked increases have occurred in wildfires, flooding,
tornado and hailstorms, drought, and sea rise. Sea rise is particularly
important for property risks because of the corrosion and deterioration of
building foundations that are being subjected to seawater.
Liability. While property risks garner the most attention,
liability risks have also increased because of climate change. With the
transportation infrastructure deteriorating from increased temperatures causing
roads to buckle, bridges to expand, and airport tarmacs to melt, transportation
injuries are on the rise. Increased temperatures have caused an increase in
auto fatalities from tire blowouts, equipment failure, and tired drivers.
Another potentially significant liability risk (as well as a life and health
risk) is the unleashing of ancient bacteria and viruses with the melting of the
permafrost.
Workers Compensation. Workers compensation losses are also
affected by climate change as hotter temperatures cause danger to workers,
especially those outdoors or indoors without air conditioning, which has led to
an increase in job-related injuries. Warmer temperatures may compromise
equipment and the integrity of products in the pharmaceutical, food, and
technology industries, causing an increase in products liability losses. Hotter
temperatures also will lower worker productivity and attention to critical
details.
Sea rise and flooding will cause the release of toxins from Superfund sites
and other environmentally hazardous waste buried in landfills near the shore.
Reportedly, there are a significant number of Superfund sites near the shore
throughout the United States. Additionally, loss of power to certain industries
will cause the release of toxins into the air or water. These toxin releases
will cause a rise in toxic tort cases.
Professional Liability. Professional lines, including
directors and officers liability insurance, is another area that will see an
increase in claim activity because of climate change. Because climate change is
affecting every industry, the advice given by lawyers that impact climate
change issues could result in legal malpractice claims. There are numerous new
disclosure and regulatory reporting requirements, including mandatory
disclosures in securities offerings that lawyers need to be aware of when
advising public (and even private) clients.
Architects and engineers may find themselves on the receiving end of
lawsuits blaming them for failing to design and engineer for resiliency and to
slow the emission of greenhouse gasses. Accountants and auditors may face
claims for the failure to account for financial risks associated with climate
change. Importantly, directors and officers are seeing increased claims over
the failure to report climate change risks, the failure to address financial
risks to shareholders, and the failure to mitigate emissions and incorporate
other noncarbon neutral activities.
How Will Climate Change Affect Reinsurers?
All the lines of business discussed above are and will continue to generate
increased losses, both in frequency and severity. While some of the insured
losses will be held net by the direct writers, a large percentage of these
insured losses will be reinsured. This is and will result in increased
reinsurance premiums.
Property catastrophe losses are the most obvious and most likely to increase
in the near term. Certainly, traditional property catastrophe reinsurance
products and capital markets property catastrophe products have been seeing
increased exposure over the past few decades.
Reinsurers, however, need to focus on secondary perils as they increase in
severity and begin to skew the natural catastrophe models. Reinsurers will need
to monitor concentration and accumulation and insist that their reinsureds do
likewise. Reinsurers will also need to exercise exposure management on climate
risks and push that risk management down to their reinsureds and to the
underlying insureds.
The increase in losses arising from climate change will cause a tightening
of both the insurance and reinsurance market in certain jurisdictions and for
certain lines of business. We already see the property insurance
"crisis" in Florida.
Because of the increased exposure, reinsurers and capital markets investors
are seeing increased use of capital markets instruments to address property
catastrophe losses. Reinsurers may also focus on reinsurance of policies
written for industries using renewables instead of fossil fuels to mitigate
their exposure to loss.
Reinsurers are increasing their focus on modeling, particularly on secondary
risks like winter storms, heat waves, wildfires, and flooding. They are also
working on new models for hurricanes because of the new hurricane behaviors
resulting from climate change.
Finally, reinsurers are leading the way in engagement in resiliency efforts
and are pressing local governments to address building code and land-use
planning issues in areas affected by climate change.
Conclusion
Reinsurers are at the forefront of climate change because reinsurers will
bear the brunt of the insured losses resulting from climate change. While
property catastrophe losses are the most obvious losses expected, almost every
line of insurance will be affected by climate change to some degree. This will
impact reinsurers and will affect reinsurance premiums and the availability of
reinsurance for certain lines of business in jurisdictions most affected by
climate change.