I Will Write No More Forever
July 2008
On October 5, 1877, at the village of Bear
Claw, very near the Canadian border of what of would less than 2 years later
become the state of Montana, the Nez Perce Indian chief known to history as
Chief Joseph—his native name meant "Thunder Rolling Down the Mountain"—surrendered
to U.S. Army General Oliver Otis Howard.
by George
L. Head, Ph.D.
Stepping back from many years of warfare waged to maintain his tribe's ancestral
homeland, and striving now to give his warriors respite after several months
of exhausting retreat, while also giving his people some hope of again prospering
in peace, Chief Joseph pledged, "I will fight no more forever."1
My Pledge
Borrowing from Chief Joseph, I realize that the time is now right for me
to pledge that I will write no more forever—at least not about risk management.
Nor will I speak, give advice, or even raise questions about how to best fulfill
personal or organizational objectives despite the probability that future events
may be significantly different—either much worse or much better—than expected.
There are two reasons why the time has come for me to step away from a career
in which I had been privileged to help others understand how they can succeed
in a risky world. First, many other fine professionals now are exploring more
frontiers of risk beyond my expertise. For example, the pioneers of enterprise
risk management have penetrated the boundary that for me has always defined
the line between pure and speculative risk—the boundary that set the limits
of the territory which I have tried to help others master. To these new pioneers,
I wish "Godspeed!"
Second, I choose to now step beyond my former career of teaching risk management
so that I can enter a new phase of my life. Inspired by Saint Francis of Assisi,
I wish to be a student—a new, hopefully humble, yet eagerly excited student
of theology. I hope to study each person’s relationship to God in order to better
understand the first cause, true purpose, and final end of all existence.
In some important ways, theology and traditional accident-centered risk management
are alike. They both can help us find security, certainty, and ultimate fulfillment
in an otherwise potentially daunting world.
Three General Guidelines
Let me conclude this column and my risk management career with three final
thoughts for those who will manage tomorrow's risks. First, remember that risk—the
probability of an outcome significantly different from the expected—can produce
both surprisingly good as well as surprisingly bad results. Be as ready to seize
the wondrously good as you are to shield yourself and others from the horrendously
bad.
Second, in dealing with exposures to loss, put risk control before risk financing.
It is always better to prevent losses, to minimize losses, or to make losses
more predictable than it is to pay for potentially large and unforeseen losses.
Good risk control makes more efficient use of a company's or a country's resources
than does any kind of risk financing.
Third, in managing risk in either gains or losses, be as self-sufficient
as you can. Here, the "you" can be an individual, a household, an organization,
public entity, a country, or even a continent. The more you are self-sufficient,
the less you have to pay someone else to safeguard you from, or to indemnify
you for, unexpected losses. Likewise, when unforeseen opportunities for gain
arise, being self-sufficient enables you to keep more of the gains for yourself
or for those you serve.
Farewell!
Here, at the very end—in the last brief paragraph of my final writing about
risk management, I find it difficult to simply say "good-bye"—or "adios"—forever.
Therefore, as I turn to studying theology, seeking to do whatever (if anything)
God wishes for me, please let me bid you a special "vaya con Dios!" For my many
friends and students, from whom I have learned much more than I have taught,
I pray "May God be with you—and with us all!"
.
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