Achieving Security in the Global Supply Chain

October 2005

Since approximately 90 percent of the world's cargo is shipped via containers, the ability to keep the Global Supply Chain (GSC) moving efficiently and safely is of paramount importance. Prior to September 11, 2001, GSC security was focused primarily on avoiding theft and mismanagement. After September 11, the concern became maintaining the integrity of the shipping process and avoiding a catastrophic disruption in traffic flow. Yet causing a major disruption in the GSC would be incredibly easy to achieve.

by Daniel Wagner*
Asian Development Bank

Consider this: even after implementation of the U.S. Container Security Initiative (CSI)—which is an ambitious effort—less than 5 percent of the 16 million containers that enter the United States every year are inspected under the program. Even with the advent of anti-tamper-proof seals, x-ray and gamma-ray scanning, radiation pagers, portal sensors, and remote monitoring, the current ability to identify a bomb or similar device is extremely difficult to achieve because so few containers are actually inspected. The Department of Homeland Security has estimated that if just one bomb exploded on board a container at a U.S. port, it would effectively shut down trade to/from the United States for at least 2 weeks, with severe global economic ramifications. Even if a bomb or weapon of mass destruction were detected at a point of origination and did not explode, it could still seriously interrupt trade as it would be presumed that other similar devices may exist elsewhere.

If that is not enough food for thought, consider the implications of a successful terrorist attack on any of the key choke points in global shipping, such as the Panama Canal, Suez Canal, Strait of Hormuz, or Strait of Malacca. If operation of either canal were stopped as a result of a ship being sunk, for example, global trade could be disrupted for months. Ships would be forced to endure lengthy detours around Africa and South America to get to their destinations, with serious consequences for time sensitive deliveries. In some respects, it is truly surprising that no such attacks have yet occurred. Part of the reason for this is a generally heightened awareness of terrorism, but also, thankfully, a lack of sophistication on the part of terrorist organizations.

The Need for a Global Supply Chain

Ultimately, maintaining a secure and efficient GSC will be the product of both human and technological agents. Containerized shipping systems contain a variety of means for improving security and efficiency. Enhancing safeguards at the policy and regulatory level are an initial point of departure, but the ability to increase the percentage of containers inspected and the effectiveness of technological tools employed will make the real difference. The role of deterrence should also not be underestimated since each new proposal for enhanced security is designed to make it more difficult to successfully attack the GSC.

Unfortunately, the routes through which cargo travels are large and difficult to secure. Tamper-proof seals can be very useful in identifying which containers have been interfered with, but it may not be detected for weeks. Current sensor technologies for detecting weapons or illegal shipments are expensive to operate and impose serious delays on logistics systems, and they are all easy to circumvent. Future planning in this area will need to be coordinated between the producers and users of such technologies taking into account development and deployment costs.

The Public/Private Partnership Initiative

If there was ever a compelling need to enhance the ability of the private and public sectors to work together, it is to achieve greater GSC security—the ultimate public/private partnership (P3). Ports are in essence P3 operations, being run jointly by government port authorities and private shipping firms. It is government's responsibility to plan a response to a catastrophe; it is also its responsibility to assess security and make a determination about if and when to close a port. It is the private sector that is responsible for making alternative shipping arrangements and changing supply chain logistics.

One of the best examples of P3 in this area is the U.S. Customs-Trade Partnership Against Terrorism (CTPAT), perhaps the largest and most successful P3 initiative to have emerged post-September 11. CTPAT is a multifaceted approach to establishing trade security that requires advance electronic information regarding all cargo shipments coming to the United States and provides the ability to analyze that information before it is loaded onto vessels headed for the United States. Under the program, private sector participants agree to make investments in security protocol to enable them to identify weapons that may be used by terrorists. In exchange, the U.S. Customs and Border Protection Agency (CBP) requires fewer inspections upon arrival and a streamlined distribution process. So the time spent to pre-screen cargo is essentially earned back upon delivery. Some 9,000 companies now participate in the program and approximately 40 percent of containerized goods imported into the United States (by value) are covered.1

Yet CTPAT is a voluntary program. The U.S. Government readily admits that it does not have the ability to effectively enforce its own regulations so as to ensure point of origin security for a manufacturer's loading dock. Participating companies are expected to use their own leverage with vendors to help increase security at the point of origin, which places a lot—perhaps too much—reliance on these companies. If a fault in the system occurs, it is likely to occur here. CBP knows this, which is why to date some 20 percent of the security profiles submitted for CTPAT membership have been rejected and nearly 100 companies have been de-certified and suspended because of negative validations, failure to meet their commitments, or because supply chain security was compromised. This is a serious problem.

CBP believes it is only a question of time until a terrorist attack interrupts the GSC. For that reason, it is important that the world's nations develop a common framework for addressing the risk now. The P3 approach adopted by the CBP will ultimately need to be adopted on a much wider scale. Each country will need to adopt a common approach to risk management that will require broadly based information sharing, including information about terrorist suspects, targets, and methods. Whether this can be achieved in any truly meaningful fashion remains to be seen. Doing so would itself create a whole host of problems related to the accuracy of such information, information leakage, and enforcement capabilities.

Complex logistics systems incorporating advanced information technology are at once more robust and more fragile than less sophisticated and less efficient options. Well-tuned supply chain management systems excel at handling supply or demand fluctuations within their competence and design capacity. What they cannot do is respond effectively to conditions that far outstrip their normal operating circumstances, such as major spikes in demand (created by a large military deployment, for example) or significant reductions in supply (that might result from the imposition of government security measures). Few, if any, logistics systems are designed to cope with massive failures in their operational or communications infrastructure. This is important because most firms operate in several independent yet interconnected supply chains.2

The Response to Terrorism

So, what would happen if a terrorist attack successfully impacts the GSC? No doubt governments have contingency plans in mind, but will they work? Consider the recent terrorist attacks on the London Underground. London became well acquainted with such attacks during the height of the IRA bombings in the 1980s and has well documented procedures for addressing them. The net result in this case, however, was that the entire underground and bus transport system was shut down and the authorities were not able to fully reopen the system for several days. Even basic internal communication systems did not work properly. After the event, London's transportation system is every bit as vulnerable as it was before the attacks.

The problem is that governments do not have the human and monetary resources to fully address such risks and the public does not have the tolerance to do what is necessary to allow governments to properly protect them. To do what is really necessary—implement a stringent security protocol—would require much more than the public will allow and more than a government can generally provide. In cities where such a protocol has been in place for a long time, public tolerance is much greater, but such tolerance is the result of conditioning. In Manila, for example, people and bags are screened at virtually every business, shopping center, movie theater, and hotel.3 In a city like London, the idea of such a protocol is anathema.

The same is true of security for the GSC. Political culture in most developed countries is skewed toward avoiding discomfort among the general population, so governments tend to adopt procedures and contingency plans that will provide the greatest amount of perceived protection with the least amount of discomfort for its citizens. Also, governments tend to be reactive rather than proactive. New York only adopted random screening of subway passengers after the London bombings (much to the chagrin of New Yorkers), and most governments did nothing to increase security for trains after the Madrid bombings last year.4 Even though there are calls in the U.S. for 100 percent inspection of shipping containers, doing so would seriously disrupt global trade as well as require enormous human and financial resources. The potential economic cost of imposing greater levels of security could be higher than the potential damage of a terrorist attack on the GSC.

Clearly, more must be done to adequately address the threat, but in a targeted and measured fashion. Governments do not have unlimited resources to throw at the problem, business is time and cost-sensitive, and the general public in developed countries do not presently have the tolerance to do what is necessary to effectively address security. The G8 leaders are making the right noises, fortunately, and have agreed to create a global container security regime, to implement common standards for electronic customs reporting, and to support the installation of automatic identification systems in certain types of cargo vessels. This is a step in the right direction, but only a first step.

Another initiative has recently been taken by the World Customs Organization to increase port security standards globally. The 166 customs agencies that form the Organization recently agreed to enhance their standards. Among the new measures to be implemented is one that permits any member state to request container inspections at any other member state's ports. They also agreed to make a greater effort to stop shipment of suspicious containers at the port of origin, to share information on outbound containers through an automated system, and to enhance the efficiency of the inspection process to prevent unnecessary delays in shipments. Effective implementation of these measures will present their own challenges.

Conclusion

The ultimate challenge is to craft a security protocol that achieves its objectives while taking into account the resource limitations of governments and businesses, and at the same time encouraging more public/private partnership solutions. The costs associated with achieving heightened levels of security will in the end have to be borne jointly by governments and business.


Reprinted with permission from "Securing the Weakest Link," Trade Finance Magazine (Asian Trade Finance Supplement), August 2005.


1Supply Chain Security in a New Business Environment, U.S. Customs and Border Protection Commissioner Robert Bonner, CBP website, April 21, 2005.

2Michael Wolfe, "The Dynamics of Supply Chain Security," The Monitor 10, no. 2 (Summer 2004).

3Even here, there are built-in biases that compromise the value of the system. Foreigners, for example, are generally not screened as aggressively as locals. Security guards are taught that the threat comes from indigenous sources. Just the opposite could be true, but the culture does not presume foreigners are a threat.

4A recent report by the Brookings Institution states that 42 percent of all terrorist attacks worldwide from 1991 to 2001 targeted rail and bus systems. Since 9/11, the U.S. has invested more than $9 per daily airline passenger in security, versus about one cent for each daily public transit rider. Resource allocation will have to change more in favor of mass transit passengers in the future if the problem is to be properly addressed.


*The views expressed herein are the author's and do not reflect the policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or any other entity.


Opinions expressed in Expert Commentary articles are those of the author and are not necessarily held by the author’s employer or IRMI. This article does not purport to provide legal, accounting, or other professional advice or opinion. If such advice is needed, consult with your attorney, accountant, or other qualified adviser.